Stephan
@stephancill
Need an hourly prediction market for when Spotify wrapped is dropping
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depatchedmode
@depatchedmode
Somewhat related, I’ve been thinking about making a prediction market for “what day of the week is it right now?”
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Stephan
@stephancill
I absolutely love that idea
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depatchedmode
@depatchedmode
whatday.xyz coming soon - but might need a bit of help if you’re interested. Could be a good tight scoped weekend frames v2 hackathon thing. Was initially gonna just aggregate clanker deploys and do smooth brained FDV calcs to determine current weekday. Might be nice to do something custom and direct funds to @owl’s @lottopgf raise.
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Stephan
@stephancill
How do you see it working?
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depatchedmode
@depatchedmode
Ooooooo Just realized there’s big “daylight savings” apy and meme potential here
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depatchedmode
@depatchedmode
Roughly, I don’t think there’s a fixed close for any bet like polymarket has. We’re talking about a cyclical bet in which the arb opportunity should be highly dynamic on each pass as the market grows. But, if it was useful, it could answer the question “what day is it on the whole of planet earth right now” in a way that’s more nuanced and real than time zones and datelines allow. 7 erc-20s with equal specs feels like a reasonable starting point. I don’t know enough about liquidity to think further. But I’m certain there’s ways to optimize. I think stupid simple is the place to begin though.
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