politics

Geopolitics

I don’t think people realize how much faster Polymarket could be processing new information with wider access. I’ve been able to countertrade prevailing political consensus twice now because it didn’t update fast enough when news broke on X. Guess that’s the risk of having a prediction market for only international crypto users: not enough liquidity.

Ok mea culpa. I got screwed on the Venezuela vote because Maduro cheated. But part of the blame lies with Polymarket. They had no contingency in the rules for what would happen if both sides claimed victory.

Policy Communications at Consensys; Ex-Circle Strategy, Crypto Startup Advisor. Snibbmaster.base.eth

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Oh that’s interesting to know. Prediction markets are powerful but clearly not a silver bullet.

They had issues with French elections as well, since the outcome's mapping to vote options wasn't so clear-cut.