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@situs

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a couple of friends asked me to provide some details on my prediction back then that ETH would've flushed a wick to ~$2100, so here it is: - Back in late June, i was continuously buying deep OTM puts for ETH as i think there will be a violent flush, size was small as i really don't like shorting, and the whole thing was more of a mini skin-in-the-game experiment - The reasoning behind this: perp OI from the ETF speculation remained elevated. The flush to $2800 in July cleaned up some of those, but i was certain that there were still a lot of longs that will eventually be liquidated hard should there be a major bearish event - The bounce in early-mid July from the Trump trade lead to more OI pilling in, and once those longs were underwater with bearish macro sentiment kicking in, all we needed was an August 5 where markets were max risk-off on 1). US recession fear , 2). Buffett selling, 3). the velocity at which USDJPY carry trade was unwinding
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