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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Today’s diplomatic efforts in Jeddah may have successfully walked Iran back from retaliating against Israel, in return for a ceasefire in Gaza. I’m not sure this changes much, though. Netanyahu has signaled before his disinterest in a ceasefire, which he deems would only serve to rearm Hamas. This wouldn’t be a problem if Hamas had been eradicated by now, however Sinwar’s fresh appointment as its new political leader is a reminder that the mastermind of the Oct 7 attack is still at large. I can’t imagine Tsahal will turn back until he is captured or killed. Furthermore, the second largest escalation threat remains in the north, with Hezbollah still intent to strike Israel either on its own, or with Iran’s unofficial encouragement. If a direct conflict erupted between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran would not remain indifferent and we’d be back to square one. The region is not out of the woods yet
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Sheena
@sheena
I fear that the region will never be completely out of the woods. This show of power will never be over and people’s lives are the casualty of it. Either in actual war or wasted youth in dread of it. Not to mention all the economic impacts which people are always the victim of.
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
A regime change in Iran might go a long way
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Sheena
@sheena
I don’t see that happening. I really hope I’m wrong but a power created by revolution would hardly go away the same way. They know how they came to be, they won’t loose at their own game. Especially when human lives are considered near nothing by the current regime, so they’re not scared of killing.
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
If you look at the political and IRGC leadership in Iran, it’s still the same bunch of old guys who took part in the revolution in their youth. That’s why I called the regime brittle in another post — the passage of time is doing its most natural thing, and these guys haven’t properly succession planned. The political order there may unravel glacially at first, but then all at once
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