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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
When will NFTs come back? 1. If you believe blue chip NFTs — Punks, Autoglyphs, Art Blocks, etc.—are similar to art, then you need them to become and remain popular with high status wealthy people who collect art today. Ownership of said NFT needs to serve a signaling value. 2. In 2021, there was some crypto-to-mainstream crossover, e.g. Jay-Z and Steph Curry, but it didn't last (although Jay-Z is still a Punk pfp). And even in that case, celebrities != high status wealthy people who collect art today. The irony is the ConstitutionDAO villain—Ken Griffin—is the ideal target for becoming interested in NFTs. 3. So how do you change that? Initiatives like @nodefoundation in fancy places like Palo Alto are a good start. Additionally, any time a major trad museum or auction house does something with NFTs, there's incremental progress. 4. But I suspect the two biggest factors will be: 1) generational change (very slow) and 2) increased screen time with next gen VR / AR (nearer term).
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
5. Apple Vision Pro was a huge disappointment for VR / AR. But it seems like they are working on a cheaper / lighter version and a separate glasses product. If enough of the % of total consumer amount of screen time shifts to VR / AR products over the next few years, I suspect provable rare digital artifacts will become more fashionable.
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shazow
@shazow.eth
How many years would you bet before more than 1% of a country spends more than 20 hours/wk in a HUD?
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Less than 5 if you count AR glasses.
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shazow
@shazow.eth
I don't count vlogging or "AI glasses" like the Meta Ray-Ban's with the camera. I do count anything with a heads-up display including AR/VR. It must render something in the field of vision (Google Glass counts). Realistically 20 hours/wk is 3-6 hour sessions multiple times per week. Current devices are way too heavy, way too hot/inefficient, and don't have the battery capacity to handle sessions that long. We still need another ~x10 leap across the board: Weight, efficiency (heat and power usage), battery capacity Hard for me to imagine these things being steady incremental improvements, probably something bursty yet to come. I'd bet >10 years. We need a "true wireless" moment like the Airpods but for HUDs when it crosses the no-brainer convenience threshold, but audio is a special case because it requires so little power inside your ear canal.
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shazow
@shazow.eth
Tbf only 3-5x weight reduction will suffice. But we can't be carrying 600g on our heads for hours at a time, that's neck injury territory. Gotta get it down below 150g or so. Latest BigScreen headset is 107g which is in the right range.
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