90-Day Average Returns After Whale Accumulations Exceeding 50K BTC
Whale accumulation (e.g., a $1.649B BTC purchase via Coinbase in October 2023) has historically yielded an average 90-day return of 40%. However, risks include:

ETF Arbitrage Effects: If whales exit through ETF redemption mechanisms (e.g., Grayscale GBTC discount narrowing below 5%), returns may compress.
Liquidity Friction: When accumulation exceeds 100K BTC, return volatility increases (±25%), reflecting market absorption challenges.