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Syed Shah🏴☠️🌊
@syed
Chip Wars Cast #4 Section about the 1980s strikes home. About Japan being replicators and the U.S. being the innovators. This was said right before Japan spent the next decade taking over the mantle of innovators. I’ve thought and probably casted something similar about China recently with @balajis.eth usually taking the opposite bull case. While I don’t think I’m wrong on the long time scale, the dynamics could change and my thesis be proven wrong, like the way the dynamics with Japan changed in the 80s vs 90s. It makes me wonder what I’m missing/ignoring. What is Balaji seeing that I’m dismissing. Makes me think I need to spend more time learning and listening.
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Scott Howard
@scottjhoward
Anything in the book on the Japan 80/90s analogy to current China ~10/20s? Analysis given to demographics? Such as Japan’s demographic aging (decreasing volume of prime-age workers) contribution to weakening of innovation->commercialition? China is in its own version of a demographic trend the ‘experts’ ascribe as negative. Lets generalize to the Peter Zeihan macro view that china is demographically screwed. Japan and China are very different in many ways but I think its fair to leverage similarities and analogy through their histories and current state for analysis and forecast.
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Scott Howard
@scottjhoward
Japan tried to innovate out of its demographic and resource constraints, which drove its successful economic moment. Did it stall because the innovators got old - ran out of bodies/brains? Or they feel off the technology waves? Certainly not mutually exclusive and a more complex question than I just provided. Another way to question did Japan fall off because of the timing of their demographic cycle or the timeline of the technology cycle? Again not mutually exclusive and more nuanced questions to be asked.
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Scott Howard
@scottjhoward
They apply to China. Which are driving the trend of China more; demographics and technology cycles? The political cycles that reflect the demographic and tech cycles are skipped over in my previous casts. I argue demos and tech move politics at the macro, but politics certainly pushes back hard. China is a clear example. Jack Ma and his cohort didn't just retire or lose their edge. In my opinion, the solution for demographics or resource constraints is productivity. Tech delivers productivity; politics must deliver and not impede tech innovation-commercialization at the risk of decreasing productivity. e/acc
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