Network States

Geopolitics

Whats a higher probability: 

WW-III is between rising(China/Russia & allies) and declining (US/Europe) nation state powers

or

Between an entirely new form of governance (e.g., a network state) and a coalition of Westphalia nation-states?

Going by @balajis.eth century in reverse thesis, the world wars were an inevitable conflict because of the growth of centralized powers. 

If those centralized institutions are decentralizing, “WW3” could be more like the friction between those smaller institutions competing for the (now fractured) support

So in OP’s terms more like the second but I don’t think anything has to be coalitions. It could just be a lot of weird seemingly aimless turmoil that happens before an eventual recentralization