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Ryan
@ryanfmason
Can somebody give me the strongest steel man of why the French guy betting 45 mil on Trump is bad? What is the worst case theory of this guy doing this, from his motivations to the specific effects it could have?
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Stuart
@olystuart
Part of the reply I got from Venice: "Betting on a particular candidate can create a self-fulfilling prophecy, where the act of betting itself can increase the chances of that candidate winning due to the perceived momentum or confidence it generates. This could lead to a situation where the betting market and the actual election results are not representative of the general public's opinion, potentially undermining the democratic process." I'd argue that ship has sailed but 🤷♂️ I think Polymarket posting it's betting tallies and calling them election odds is more of a problem.
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Ryan
@ryanfmason
This is the best argument I’ve seen, that it manipulates public perception, which is obviously extremely underwhelming
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