shah

@rektshah

85 Following

24 Followers

shah pfp

soft payrolls data but no major weakness + powell’s dovish commentary weds + conservative positioning = we do a little risk on

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

core pce 3.7% vs 3.4% consensus gdp 1.6% vs 2.5% consensus rates stay higher for longer absent a recession

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

structural differences between this cycle and last: + institutional / etf flows - no lockdowns so less people with nothing to do but gamble - weaker low end consumer due to inflation impact - scar tissue: crypto became mainstream and many were burned

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

went to bed fully stabled

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

the only buying rn should be short covering

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

derisked a bit. still have more long exposure than i did a week ago, just freeing up some dry powder to trade around we’re programmed higher but i was playing for a quick rebound as middle east tensions de-escalated, and this week’s inflation data threw a wrench in that thesis

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

the equity / crypto market disconnect is still a layup

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

futures green while crypto down materially over the weekend. one of these two isn’t right

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

iran used their 2020 playbook: targeted attack with minimal casualties up to bibi to make the next move. if he’s smart, he’ll walk away and we should see risk assets rally once we lap this (inflation permitting) if he escalates, we’re going much lower

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

bought sol / eth today. currently 50% allocated in crypto with limit buys down to $1,250 eth / $40 sol.

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

i’m smart enough to know i’m not smart enough to trade geopolitics

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

buying sol here (more lower), but this isn’t as simple as buy the dip when russia invaded ukraine, crypto / equities melted. if you’re buying here, you’re underwriting serious geopolitical risk that likely gets worse before it gets better

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

can devs turn sol on?

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

ton of limit orders hit over the weekend. bought eth, sold eth, bought sol, none of which sold. honestly not sure why the eth / btc move relative to sol, but setting some long sol v short btc at a ratio. playing for a reversion

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

closed this out at sol $176.50 (+1.8%), btc $67,800 (-0.6%); net profit 1.2% also sold sol i bought today at $168.50 on the initial jobs move for $175.90 (+4.4%) and sol i bought for $175.40 for flat. hoping to avoid screens this weekend

1 reply

2 recasts

3 reactions

shah pfp

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

longed sol ($173.40) vs short btc ($67,300) at a ratio yesterday’s price action in btc vs eth / sol suggests less risk appetite in crypto playing for a near term reversion

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

shah pfp

tried to pull this off b2b but i was a little too greedy with the limits last night and nothing filled

0 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

shah pfp

looks like i was the top signal

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction