Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
Some predictions on 2030 AI capabilities. But I think it's too pessimistic in its implications: if AI bug-finding is easy, then *the devs themselves* could use it to strip out bugs first. Average code has 15-50 bugs per 1000 lines; if consumer bug-finders could catch 99%, then quite a few apps could become bug-free.
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Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
1k lines is a lot: four apps that I wrote for personal use and regularly use (findable on https://github.com/vbuterin ) are a total of 919 lines of code. I feel like people forget too much that the "endgame" of cybersecurity (what happens if defense *and* offense become ultrasophisticated) is quite defense-favoring.
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rednosedgoose
@rednosedgoose
Yeah but those 919 lines of code run on top of a complex stack of software, hardware, networking protocols, etc. Even if the code itself becomes bug free there is still a high likelihood of bugs in "other" code introducing vulnerabilities. Case in point: Heartbleed.
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Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
I suspect if you sum up across all applications, "my share" of that code would be less than 919 lines, so "if everyone chipped in" that could be secured with the same tools. Problem is of course that it's a public goods problem.
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rednosedgoose
@rednosedgoose
If we look at a computer (or even the whole internet) as one big system there is also the possibility of bugs being introduced by the interaction between components. Even if "everyone chipped in" all they could do is prove that their piece of the overall system is bug free but not that the system overall is bug free.
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rednosedgoose
@rednosedgoose
Still, less bugs == better, I just think that the goal of 100% bug free might be a bit of stretch. I'm reminded of a bug in a wifi protocol (can't find it at the moment) that was 100% bug free according to spec but then it turned out there was a problem with the spec itself.
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