Four days until the #FOMC meeting, where Powell could cut rates by 0.25% (50% chance of a 0.25 cut, 50% chance of a 0.50 cut).

The similarities between 2007 and 2024 are striking!

Charts from comments:

First Fed rate cut:
September 18, 2007
September 18, 2024 (high probability)

Unemployment rate
September 2007: 4.7
September 2024: 4.2

US inflation rate year-on-year
September 2007: 2.5
September 2024: 2.5

US housing starts:
September 2007: 1.238
September 2024: 1.235

US key economic activity
September 2007: 100.4
September 2024: 100.4

US existing home sales
September 2007: 4.5 million
September 2024: 3.95 million

(This post does not predict the crash in 2007. I am just pointing out the interesting similarities in timing and economic indicators.

Fascinating comparison! The striking similarities between 2007 and 2024 are a reminder that history can repeat itself. The probability of a rate cut is high, but it's crucial to monitor other economic indicators as well.