how i see things shaking out 

BTC/ETH/SOL: each make different tradeoffs, thus are better fits for different uses

this market goes one of three ways:

btc dominant: if btc layers allow scale and expressivity
btc + eth: if eth layers allow scale 
btc + eth + sol: if btc and eth fail to scale to be as performant as sol

surgeon, technologist, writer, humanist. read.pourteaux.xyz 

frank unsolicited advice:
bitcoiners- embrace new functionality on bitcoin. mute political bitcoiners. 

ethereans- embrace the death of “ultrasound money” and focus on performance of L2

solana- embrace meager decentralization which allows performant UX. differentiate from other alt L1s.

if i had to guess, i’d say option 3 is most likely, where each asset has its speciality, with a bit of overlap into the use cases of the others. 

a trustless bridge would really help this scenario.

i’d suspect OFAC sanctions are successful and thus sol will be a better fit for casual things like gaming assets

A big unknown in this situation is what happens when sol faces its first OFAC sanctions. I don’t know enough about their validator set to be confident about the outcome, but if there’s 100% censorship then it will be very clear what the tradeoffs are but if txs get through, ETH is super fucked

my impression is that there isn’t a ton of activity on L2 that isn’t incentivized, especially compared to Solana L1. Which i agree is surprising… it seem eth L2 and sol L1 are very similar on the blockchain trilemma spectrum. but there are so many eth L2s, and apps make their own rather than join one that exists.

Ethereum is already scaling. There are over 700 EVMs right now.