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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
A great one-hour interview with Prof. Stephen Kotkin from Stanfordās Hoover Institution about China-US relations. My own TL;DW: https://youtu.be/4aQfzDs7RzI 1/7 China is first and foremost characterized by its Leninist regime, in that the CCP has a monopoly on power and inserts itself into all institutions both public and private. Previous regime attempts to bring the private sector to the CCP by allowing business people to become ranking members failed; so now the policy is to have CCP presence in every private companies' boards and executive teams. 2/7 Whether China is also a Marxist regime is subject to interpretation, given the latitude extended to the private sector which generates wealth and employment. 3/7 The regimeās primary goal is its own perpetuation, which limits how much it can open up both economically and politically. The Pygmalion approach of expecting China to embrace the international order is, therefore, naive and unrealistic. China would rather reshape the international order.
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
4/7 The CCP's secondary goal is to restore China's greatness, which may imply territorial expansion. China was historically a superpower before the US existed, lost its footing for a while, and now that it's back, the newly risen United States as a free and open hegemon challenges that ambition. 5/7 The US have four options from here. One is a hot war ā unthinkable because at this scale, there is too much to lose, even for the winner. Two is appeasement ā which historically also leads to war because "the hunger grows with the eating" (the appeased keeps making larger demands until they are unacceptable). Three is the Pygmalion approach ā unrealistic for the reason I mentioned in #3. Four is maintaining the status quo of "strategic competition" (i.e., a Cold War) with China ā i.e., shaping international alliances to be more favorable to the US without going so far as to trigger military action by China (e.g., on Taiwan).
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Purpšµšø
@purp
I don't disagree with 4 but I also don't think it will include territory expansion. China's taken a lot of huge steps with things like belt and road initiative and sees lifting the global south out of poverty and under China's influence is the more ideal way to restore greatness
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
I agree and had the same thought listening to the interview. In my raw notes, I actually wrote that Prof. Kotkin failed to substantiate his assumption about China seeking territorial expansion (except for Taiwan, which they donāt perceive as expansion but a āreturn to the foldā). Being in Asia, I see China as wanting to be very strong domestically (demographic recovery, diversified economy, scientific and technological supremacy, etc) and projecting soft power abroad. Prof. Kotkin does make the point though that itās important that the CCP perceives the risk of expansion as being too great (including regime collapse, in the limit) relative to the rewards, and itās entirely possible that itās already the case today. We just donāt know enough about Xiās thinking because he doesnāt share much
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