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September is historically not an alpha month. But what’s also interesting is the rolling maximum drawdown over 30 days from the September low, broken down by years.
🟢 The most optimistic forecast aligns with the 2016 deviation of 10+%, which would bring the BTC price down to $52,727.
🟢 In the 2023 model, it’s predicted that the price will reach $48,759.
🟢 In the pessimistic scenario of a 2017 repeat, it would be very painful. The BTC price would drop to $34,873.
🟢 But guessing which year we might repeat is a very uncertain endeavor. In this case, I would look more at 2019-2020. Or better yet, build an average, which would give us a forecasted price of $44,204. By the way, there’s also a horizontal level in this zone—what a coincidence... 3 replies
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