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The intensifying US growth deceleration is starting to drag on overall global growth momentum. Markets have so far been dealing with these headwinds incredibly well, evidenced in part by the persistence of historically low implied and realized volatility regimes. 

We do have positive policy factors to look forward to, which may go some ways at solving this discrepancy. The start of a rate easing cycle likely takes place at latest in the fall and policies under a new US administration could continue to drive markets.

Nonetheless, in the near term the data flow against these drivers.