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Potplucker
@potplucker
Did a review of this hand. The villain put in money every street. The river bet put me all in for remaining 59 blinds. So getting nearly 3.9-1 odds. Its sort of a no brainer call with 2 pair imo. Got to win just once in 4 times to about break even. Twice to be well in profit. If the river had completed a flush and 4 liner of a straight then maybe may find folds there with 2 pair. Would enjoy reading comments.
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and42🎩
@and42
Depends on the sizings. Did he 3bet preflop? Did he donk bet the flop? How big? How big was the turn bet? River bet of 59bb is huge, so I would think with which worse hands could he bet so big? AJ or AT? Missed flush? It could be a set or other 2 pairs which would be bigger than yours. And of course a 9, cause he could had a Q9 which he was betting all streets and arived in the river. For me thats a fold, I would find better spots to get him 🙂
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Potplucker
@potplucker
Thank you for the reply and questions. I will try to answer each. Did he 3bet preflop? Yes, villain did 3bet preflop. I opened for 2.4 bb and villain as big blind 3bet to 10.8 blinds. My primary coach (https://chasingpokergreatness.com) indicate a fold to this raise. Ranges were developed by mass data and PIO solver. A secondary source (RangeTrainer.app) of ranges that are more GTO based indicate call. I leaned toward this because the villain with fairly strong stats over a small +200 hand sample seemed to be a bit more aggressive this session with 3bets. I had the hand that might be able to exploit that aggression.
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Potplucker
@potplucker
Did he donk bet the flop? Yes, a small size of about 25% pot. Since it was a fairly dynamic wet board and I did hit 2nd pair I called. Reason being that I am often in the lead verses this bet size but because its so wet its not a spot I would like to raise.
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Potplucker
@potplucker
How big was the turn bet? Villain went for large sizing lead of 24.6 blinds in response to the 6h turn. About 70% pot size. This is certainly a bet that brings concern. If I am ahead then the 6h likely not going to change that. It will also swell the pot that folding the river will take good amount of discipline. Getting near 4-1 on the river bet is a great reason to get the money since just need to win 25% of the time. In hindsight, had I considered the my remaining stack verses pot I may had found a jam here on the turn. Trying to deny equity to all villain draws and protect the hand.
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Potplucker
@potplucker
River bet of 59bb is huge, so I would think with which worse hands could he bet so big? AJ or AT? Missed flush? Yes, I have to agree with the logic. Its a big bet. I can only really beat bluffs, single pairs, and the unlikely combos of 2 pair smaller then mine. As played a case could be made for premium pairs. My call was in hope that villain had AA, KK, or QQ and basically turned those hands into a bluff on the river. Another factor to consider. This was played at 5NL. I tend to stick to a very conservative form of bankroll management. With many bullets behind. For better or worse this allows for greater occurrences of making light hero calls. One of my coaches advised long ago to trust the math and call. Expect to lose often. When the odds are giving near 4-1 variance is somewhat softened.
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