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Maretus
@maretus
Here’s how I think things are going to go over the next year or so. Uncertainty brought on by the new tariff policy is going to plunge the U.S. into a recession or put us on the path to one. Markets will bleed the whole time this is happening. Later this year, economic data will push the FED to reduce interest rates, end QT, and maybe start QE. This would give risk assets a huge pump. For awhile. However, I think inflation will remain high and ultimately the FED will have acted too hastily, forcing them to reverse course in 2026. At which point, I expect a prolonged recession or worse. So, in my very retarded opinion - there will be a good opportunity to make money later in the year when the fed pivots. But make your money quick and take profits cause it won’t last for long.
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petar.xyz
@petar
I agree I'd even say the current crypto bull cycle is over
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Maretus
@maretus
For sure. Bitcoin might still be in a bull cycle. The next week will really determine that imo. If it continues to hold somewhat strong next to us stocks, it may have finally achieved that digital gold narrative. If it starts dumping though and I think it will, it just means people were still buying the dip and or thinking the tariff stuff would be short lived. I actually think the sell off on the stock market should have been worse but there’s still some rabid Trump supporters out there saying buy the dip. So maybe that’s why we didn’t hit circuit breakers yesterday.
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