why prediction markets are yet to become a dominant category of onchain apps?

the obvious "too early" but,

why does Polymarket only seem to have success in the political sphere? why was Omen not enough? why is Farcaster’s new blood focusing on “play money” despite onchain composability?

tech, humanity & alternative institutions /limitless 

iirc Augur used vanilla LMSR (which has the cons I described above) for a time before discontinuing it as a result of gas cost (logarithmic calculation is quite intense). then, they moved to CPPM model like everyone else until Polymarket went CLOB