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Passed Pawn

@passedpawn

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Passed Pawn pfp
Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
#SPX put skew is as cheap as it gets. Two recent comps: 1. Pre-GFC: very low VIX, Fed on hold, low macro vol, Fed put 2. During GFC: VIX exploded >40 so skew naturally flattened as high vol priced into all strikes None of these conditions exist today. Skew seems too cheap. https://i.imgur.com/TfOi6wG.jpg
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Almost $21B flew into equities for the Santa Claus rally. So far not working out. We'll see if they've been naughty or nice this coming week. https://i.imgur.com/XMxAiHw.jpg
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Congrats!!
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
It’s very unusual for wage inflation to fall substantially without unemployment rising first. https://i.imgur.com/4Zx23GN.jpg
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Housing is in big trouble. Buyer traffic index has fallen to near COVID lockdown level. https://i.imgur.com/d7O0KhI.jpg
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Retail inventories excluding autos are WAY above trend. Everyone over-ordered due to strong demand in 2020-21 and lack of supply. Now they're stuck with it. Demand is falling and margins will follow. This is not a good setup for a solid chunk of the global economy. https://i.imgur.com/mg3HPaB.jpg
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
My take on Powell is that he was less hawkish than he's been. 1. He didn't really push back vs easier financial conditions. 2. He opened the window slightly to engineering a soft landing. 3. He embraced two-sided risk management. No change in policy, but friendlier tone.
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Agree. Given prior cycles, the worst of the profits recession will probably be next year and this quarter revenues are still flattered by high inflation.
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Even the 2001-02 recession led to a 30% decline in earnings. 2023 estimates are +6%. 🤔 https://i.imgur.com/waOvWQn.jpg
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Given how high inventories are, I can’t see a sustainable bounce in orders.
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Feels like a good community so far
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
I definitely feel more productive the next day when I skip drinking.
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
If you put people in a position where lots of money is flowing through their business, a certain portion of them will commit fraud. That's just the reality. The type of business is irrelevant.
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
I think it’s just the nature of the beast. People feel emboldened to act more aggressively and remove their filters because they are not in person where it’s viewed as unacceptable.
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Happy Thanksgiving!
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Some non-crypto things I enjoy: - ice hockey - macroeconomics - chess - psychology - studying animals - weightlifting - surfing
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
I tend to agree
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Either this is a negative confidence bubble or it’s a deep recession coming next year.
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
Next year’s earnings estimates are pure fantasy. Orders have collapsed and unemployment is set to rise next year. The profit cycle is coming, unfortunately. https://i.imgur.com/Ssu7sED.jpg
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Passed Pawn
@passedpawn
1 seems best to me although 2 is interesting, hadn’t thought of just influencing the algo.
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