Geopolitics

Romanian elections will test polymarket thesis hard as it might just prove to be significantly more wrong than right on its most active current afairs market next sunday. Hope this happens, though in fairness I haven't looked at the data and my spider senses are definately not syncronised to the average romanian.

As predicted. Polymarket has been quite useless for the Romanian elections. What I think happened is that clueless Trumpists pumped the market to favour Simion. Would by no means dare to call it tho. 2 days to go.

așa a fost și în noiembrie; s-au schimbat dramatic cotele *după* aceeași surpriză pe care am avut-o mulți dintre noi