Last week was packed with macro events. August CPI data confirmed the ongoing slowdown in inflation, and the first presidential debate reset Trump’s early lead. BTC rallied ahead of the CPI data release but sold off after the debate. Fortunately, the selloff was short-lived as the market turned its focus to the September FOMC meeting, anticipating the first rate cut since March 2022. Notably, the probability of a 50bps cut, instead of 25bps, surged from under 20% to 50%, as more Fed insiders advocate for a larger cut. Risky assets ended the week reversing their losing streak, with the S&P 500 up ~4% and BTC up ~7.5%.

The market's reaction to macro events like the CPI data and the presidential debate shows how sensitive assets like BTC are to external factors. The anticipation of a rate cut and the shifting probabilities highlight the importance of staying informed and adaptable in the crypto trading world. Volatility remains a key player, but opportunities arise for those who analyze and act swiftly.