politics

Publicly reported early voting numbers seem to be significantly more Republican than 2020.

Seeing some weird reporting at least for Florida. Here's the current info for mail in ballots thus far from the division of elections, Secretary of State's office. No early voting numbers reported yet -- just mail in and only party affiliation.

Seeing some weird reporting at least for Florida. Here's the current info for mail in ballots thus far from the division of elections, Secretary of State's office. No early voting numbers reported yet -- just mail in and only party affiliation.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Florida seems to be headed for a major red wave?

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Florida seems to be headed for a major red wave?

https://x.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1848742711911715212

I assumed so as well but look at the mail in ballot stats. Seems like the opposite there. I don’t think the info reported above is accurate. I can’t find official stats that match. 

Also — the wildcard is Amendment 4. I think it may drive some unexpected turnout. The non affiliated/independent vote is pretty large. May be key this year. (and could go either way). I still think it’s a likely Trump win but it’ll be close and if it goes for Harris, Amendment 4 will be the reason.

All of the polls are solidly beyond the margin of error?

Yup I’ve seen that but how do you rectify the opposite polling on Amendment 4? There’s a weird disconnect ideologically speaking. I do think FL likely goes to Trump — just that outside chance that Harris gets a bump of unlikely voters turning out. And anecdotally — the only political ads I’m seeing here is Amendments 3 & 4 — and lots of it. There’s a ton of gotv efforts and media buys around both. Small chance but I think that angle is being overlooked. 

Assuming Trump does win FL AND Amendment 4 passes, it will be a really interesting post mortem around that dichotomy.

All of the polls are solidly beyond the margin of error?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/florida/trump-vs-harris