For Bitcoin it's make it or break it

It has been an exhausting 8 months of sideway-bearish market, which has knocked retail investors and cryptocurrency traders off their feet.

A thread.
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For many retailers it was a 215-days long time capitulation: they have been slowly pushed out of the game by the failure to overcome the all-time high, and by the $BTC price action that has shown much weakness against traditional markets, as shown by the bearish correlation with SPX500 index.
A first positive signal is that this correlation seems to have found a top (red zone) from which it is now moving away for the third time since July.

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Crypto native, web3 wanderer, DeFi chemist and metaverse voyager.
Empirical reality can be operated by streams of bits and chains of blocks.

From that bottom ($49.200), however, Bitcoin has begun to move slowly and uncertainly against the previous trend, most notably since Sept. 6 when markets take the 50 bps interest rate cut for given.

[🧵4/n]

Now it's make it or break it: Bitcoin is retesting the dynamic trend line of its peaks for the 6th time since March 1st, Bitcoin supply on all DEX is at its lowest since 2021…

[🧵5/n]

…almost all of the Open Interest has been taken out of the underlying areas but there is huge amount to take above 70k (chart #4), and the Stock-to-Flow model marks a price rise to $120k that is far to be seen.

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Should we be rejected again by dynamic resistance at $68k, there is a good entry point for bulls at the 0.5~0.618 Fibonacci zone between $61,750 and $60,200, and the whole crypto market could be left with bated breath and in the grip of nervousness until the U.S. elections.

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The sign of a significative marked trend reversal would occur if we break out of the daily regression channel at $56k, in which case the ultimate resistance remains the $54k bottom, below which the panic spectres of fear will throw us a grim Halloween party👻🎃

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🙏 If you like this thread, please put a ❤️ and mirror the first post below, it's only two touches for you, but a huge help for me!

➡️ For the meaning of all the other signs shown in the graph, refer to my past analyses: https://x.com/natoil42/highlights

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At the same time, crypto traders have suffered from the sudden price plunges that have followed all the failed attempts to overcome the dynamic peak trend line and increased the number of rekt following the price capitulation of all markets on August 5 caused by the carry trade unwinding.

[🧵3/n]