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Prediction markets like Polymarket can be more than just a platform to bet on elections. They can be a powerful tool with the “potential to create better implementations of social media, science, news, governance, and other fields,” Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin wrote in his blog.
Buterin calls this “info finance.” This is how he defines it:
“…info finance is a discipline where you (i) start from a fact that you want to know, and then (ii) deliberately design a market to optimally elicit that information from market participants.”
According to Buterin, Polymarket turned out to be a “very effective” source of information regarding the U.S. elections this week. Polymarket correctly predicted Trump’s win with 60/40 odds. But the platform also displayed that Trump had over a 95% chance of winning and over a 90% chance of gaining control of all branches of government even as some news sources tried to keep hope alive for vice president Kamala Harris.