While no single on-chain signal is foolproof, exchange netflow divergence paired with long-term holder (LTH) behavior offers a historically strong indicator of liquidity shifts. Large exchange inflows during price stagnation suggest distribution, while sustained outflows during dips signal accumulation. Similarly, declining LTH supply during rallies points to profit-taking, and increasing supply in bear markets indicates accumulation. However, false signals from internal exchange movements, macro events, and the influence of derivatives mean this isn't always accurate.