Building @kiwi 
Writing @ https://kanfa.macbudkowski.com/

well, the polls feed into polymarket predictions

yeah but their role will be much smaller. it's like asking people which burger they want to buy - Big Mac or Whooper. nice data point but def not enough to determine who will sell more burgers in Q4. that's why hedge funds use more complex prediction models.

... and that's why prediction markest work - because bettors use multiple data points to make sense of the world, just like hedge funds do on tradfi markets. i was skeptical if it'd work as intended but now i'm confident we got a brand new tool to understand the world around us.