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Mac Budkowski 🥝 @ FarCon
@macbudkowski
https://news.kiwistand.com/stories?index=0x661d1e99c884037c93ab5cb2d3c7e1b2ce90968d0accd6a67fbd00f007ed59e1c9dc2d4c Good article on sizing your bets - very important skill if you want to degen 🎩
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Leo Nasskau
@lsn
We were surprised that 1/3 of participants wound up with less money than they started with. More astounding still is that 28% of participants went bust and received no payout. That a game of flipping coins with an ex-ante 60/40 winning probability produced so many subjects that lost everything is startling.
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Mac Budkowski 🥝 @ FarCon
@macbudkowski
One comment from my side: at some point I got bored and started betting more than I should. Probably more people do it as well. That being said... many people also do it on financial markets. They're bored with the market going sideways and they bet too much to feel the excitement again.
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Leo Nasskau
@lsn
Did you do the experiment? That’s cool How much did you walk away with? Stocks feel even harder. It’s far more complicating; not just a series of all or nothing bets; the size of outcome is determined by duration instead Complexity means even easier to adopt fallacies
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Mac Budkowski 🥝 @ FarCon
@macbudkowski
I got bankrupt because I wasn't patient enough :) Agree re: duration. When everyone thinks short-term, thinking long-term can provide some alpha.
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Leo Nasskau
@lsn
MAC
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Mac Budkowski 🥝 @ FarCon
@macbudkowski
🙄
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