m4197301

@m4197301

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“In the US, with Trump’s victory, I am aggressively bullish on the US becoming a global leader in the space by the end of the year,” Raj Brahmbhatt, CEO of Web3 settlement company Zeebu, told Cointelegraph in December.

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Less than a month before a new United States presidential administration and Congress are set to be sworn into office, many figures in the digital asset industry are speculating the change in leadership could lead to more favorable regulations and laws.

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For some executives, any change in policy from the US government could be apparent through actions from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Under SEC Chair Gary Genser and his predecessor Jay Clayton, the commission filed several enforcement actions against US crypto firms over allegations of unregistered securities offerings, including against Ripple and Coinbase.

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Ripple is currently appealing an August 2024 judgment in its case against the SEC, which found the firm liable for $125 million.

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Others like Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal seemed to support the implications on the SEC for the US Supreme Court overturning the Chevron doctrine in 2024. The June opinion removed the practice of courts generally deferring to agencies’ interpretations of laws and regulations and required them to “exercise their independent judgment,” suggesting that judges could modify their approach to SEC cases involving digital assets.

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There are several court cases between the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against crypto firms that are expected to move forward in 2025.

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After a year of sentencing former FTX executives as well as sending former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao to prison for four months, US authorities will look at the criminal cases against former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky and Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon, recently extradited from Montenegro.

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Any change in leadership at the US Attorney’s office in New York — where many civil and criminal cases against crypto firms and executives are handled — or at the SEC or CFTC could potentially upend existing cases.

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Donald Trump has already proposed replacing Gensler as SEC chair with former commissioner Paul Atkins and Damian Williams with Jay Clayton as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York.

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In November and December, Ether ETFs saw eight straight weeks of net inflows, including a record-breaking $2.2 billion in the week of Nov. 26, according to data from CoinShares.

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In November and December, Ether ETFs saw eight straight weeks of net inflows, including a record-breaking $2.2 billion in the week of Nov. 26, according to data from CoinShares.

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However, in each cycle, the supercycle narrative was not fulfilled ending in a price crash that wiped out proponents as it entered a prolonged bear market.

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Su Zhu, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, was the most notable proponent of the Supercycle Thesis from 2021, arguing that crypto markets would remain in a bull market without a sustained bear market, with Bitcoin eventually peaking at $5 million.

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3AC certainly borrowed money as if the supercycle thesis was real and when it was eventually liquidated, the crypto market cap fell by almost 50% on the news and the collapse led to bankruptcies and financial difficulties for lenders including Voyager Digital, Genesis Trading and BlockFi.

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Nevertheless, the US election results have overwhelmingly provided Bitcoin with unprecedented and extremely bullish conditions considering the backing of a US President who seems to be following through with his pro-crypto promises, among them to never sell Bitcoin from the US Bitcoin stockpile.

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George S. Georgiades, a lawyer who transitioned from advising Wall Street firms on capital raising to working with the crypto industry in 2016, told Cointelegraph that enacting the Bitcoin Reserve Act “would mark a turning point for global Bitcoin adoption” and likely “trigger other countries and private institutions to follow suit, driving broader adoption and enhancing market liquidity.”

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Basel Ismail, CEO of crypto investment analytics platform Blockcircle, agreed and said approval would be “one of the most bullish events in crypto history” as “it’ll catalyze a race to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible.”

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Veteran crypto investor and Bitcoin educator Chris Dunn said to Cointelegraph that such a FOMO-based competitive buying spree among countries could completely alter the current crypto market cycle.

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The Bitcoin market would likely change radically if states become market buyers. A new wave of new investors from global financial centers would flood the crypto markets, changing the market dynamics, psychology and reactions to certain events.

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While it remains speculative to assume this legislation could disrupt Bitcoin’s well-known four-year halving cycles, several dynamics might evolve, said Nexo analyst Kalchev.

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