LuminousQuasar
@luminousqusar
155 Following
20 Followers
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
February 18th, Tuesday
High-level Voices:
At the symposium on private enterprises, national leaders emphasized that the basic policy guidelines of the Party and the state for the development of the private economy have been incorporated into the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics. These will be consistently upheld and implemented, and they will not change.
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday's symposium was compared to the one in 2018, from the number of attendees to the positioning and smiles.
However, judging by the content of the speech, it was clearly less forceful than in 2018, when many supportive policies were announced.
This time, it was stated that our environment is good, it hasn't changed, and it won't change.
Hong Kong stocks represent the attitude of foreign capital, which saw profit-taking at the opening with no significant recovery throughout the day. Foreign investors might be more focused on the content of the meeting rather than its symbolic significance. 0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
February 13, Thursday
High-level Voices:
• The U.S. January non-seasonally adjusted CP| rose by 3% year-over-year, expected to rise by 2.9%, previous value rose by 2.9%; after seasonal adjustment, CP| rose by 0.5% month-over-month, expected to rise by 0.3%, previous value rose by 0.4%.
Overall Sentiment:
• The U.S. January CP| was higher than market expectations, further dampening hopes for a U.S. rate cut. Traders have shifted their bets from a September rate cut to a December one, meaning if inflation data continues to exceed expectations, there might not be a rate cut in 2025.
• Maintaining high interest rates in the
U.S. impacts the exchange rates of other currencies against the dollar. Here, we actually hope more than the U.S. that they cut rates; a persistent high interest rate differential will continue to pressure the RMB exchange rate. 0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
February 12, Wednesday
High-Level Voices:
According to the data from Maoyan Professional Edition, the box office for the movie "Ne Zha: The Devil Child Stirs the Sea" (including pre-sales) has exceeded 9 billion yuan, making it the first film in Chinese cinema history to surpass 9 billion yuan in box office.
Overall Sentiment:
The box office for "Ne Zha 2" has surpassed 9 billion, and now it seems likely to exceed the 125 billion from "Inside Out 2”, which is the highest-grossing animated film in history, though it's unlikely to reach the all-time record of over 200 billion. This forms an interesting contrast with last year's "Black Wukong" game, which sold for 10 billion- showing that while physical industries are faltering, the cultural and entertainment sector is on the rise. Both are, interestingly, based on mythological themes.
SAIC Motor's announcement of cooperation with Huawei caused a significant rise; the reshuffling in the electric vehicle industry has begun. 0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Monday, February 10
High-level Voices:
• January CP| rose by 0.5% year-on-year, 0.7% month-on-month; PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year.
• In 2024, there were 6.106 million marriage registrations, a decrease of 20.5% from 7.682 million in 2023, marking the lowest annual figure since 1980.
Overall Sentiment:
• The CPI increased, but considering the Spring Festival effect, the rise wasn't significant. Last year, the Spring Festival was in February, so next month's CP| data might look worse.
• The number of marriages in 2024 hit a new low. Last year was the Year of the Dragon, which ended an 8-year decline in marriage registrations. The number of babies born in 2024, also in the Year of the Dragon, led to a rebound in annual population growth, but this rebound is not sustainable. The number of babies born in 2025, the Year of the Snake, is expected to hit a historical low. 0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
February 7, Friday
High-Level Voices:
On Thursday morning, Trump reiterated his commitment to increasing U.S. oil production to lower crude oil prices, stating, "The U.S. government will extract more of this liquid gold than ever before. We will drive down oil prices, and everything else will follow."
Overall Sentiment:
Yesterday, the A-share market rose. After the U.S. introduced countermeasures without further action, the market gained hope, perhaps signaling the end of this round of the trade war? After all, the U.S. has already lifted tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Coupled with breakthroughs in Al models here, there was an air of victory in the market, influencing both A-shares and H-shares to rise broadly.
Trump has been frequently commenting on oil prices recently, aiming to drive them down. Previously, oil prices were pegged to the dollar, and this unusual approach might suggest a change in how the dollar is anchored. 0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
February 6, Thursday
High-Level Voices:
Premier Li Qiang emphasizing the need to anchor development goals, increase counter-cyclical adjustments in a timely and situation-specific manner, focus on prominent issues by integrating resources and exerting concentrated efforts, dare to break conventions to introduce tangible policy measures, and promptly respond to concerns by enhancing interaction between policy and the market.
Overall Sentiment:
The A-share market opened higher but ended lower on Tuesday, maintaining the same taste as before the New Year. The consumer sector, which had underperformed before the holiday, became the hardest hit on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, despite the boost from holiday consumption. Representative liquor stocks broke down significantly, indicating that boosting consumption requires more tangible policy measures.
U.S. stocks continued to rise, with some stocks affected by the trade war pulling back, but this did not dampen the overall upward trend. 0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
February 5, Wednesday
High-Level Voices:
The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that starting from February 10, 2025, additional tariffs will be imposed on some imported goods from the United States. Specifically, a 15% tariff will be added on coal and liquefied natural gas; a 10% tariff will be added on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement cars, and pickup trucks.
Overall Sentiment:
China's imposition of additional tariffs on U.S. goods is a countermeasure to the U.S. tariff increases on our products. The U.S. only increased tariffs by 10%, while we increased tariffs on some of their goods by 15%, which fully demonstrates that our country is well-prepared for Trump's trade war.
Yesterday, Hong Kong stocks opened first, initially surged due to U.S. tariffs being lower than expected, then plunged when our countermeasures were announced, but rebounded with the influence of a mysterious force, setting a positive tone for the A-share market. 0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
January 20, Monday
High-Level Voices:
The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that, according to preliminary calculations, China's GDP in 2024 was 134.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%; among which, the fourth quarter saw a year-on-year growth of 5.4%.
Overall Sentiment:
Last Friday, during the trading session, the National Bureau of Statistics announced a 5% GDP growth for 2024, and the market immediately fell because no one believed this figure. Subsequently, mysterious forces stepped in, and the market re-evaluated the economic data, interpreting the positive aspects, leading to a recovery in market sentiment.
Over the weekend, Trump, who is about to take office, made a bold move that directly increased his personal wealth by five or six times, leaving little room for doubt about his ability to stimulate the economy. 0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction