Today’s diplomatic efforts in Jeddah may have successfully walked Iran back from retaliating against Israel, in return for a ceasefire in Gaza.

I’m not sure this changes much, though.

Netanyahu has signaled before his disinterest in a ceasefire, which he deems would only serve to rearm Hamas. This wouldn’t be a problem if Hamas had been eradicated by now, however Sinwar’s fresh appointment as its new political leader is a reminder that the mastermind of the Oct 7 attack is still at large. I can’t imagine Tsahal will turn back until he is captured or killed.

Furthermore, the second largest escalation threat remains in the north, with Hezbollah still intent to strike Israel either on its own, or with Iran’s unofficial encouragement.

If a direct conflict erupted between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran would not remain indifferent and we’d be back to square one.

The region is not out of the woods yet

PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Aviator, diver, ETH maxi, nexialist | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

I am just fvcking tired of wars. Having a kid living abroad just make me more anxious.