Content pfp
Content
@
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Lucas pfp
Lucas
@lucas79
The global financial landscape witnessed a turbulent week, with significant declines sweeping across major stock indices and the cryptocurrency market. Amidst this volatility, investors wonder whether to brace for a prolonged downturn or see this as a strategic opportunity. In our latest market report, we delve into a comprehensive global macro overview, dissect the factors driving widespread sell-offs, and offer insights on navigating these challenging times. Stay informed, gain a clear perspective on positioning your investments, and understand the critical data that shapes the market dynamics through the research below. Title: U.S. Recession Alert! An In-Depth Analysis of the Market
4 replies
0 recast
0 reaction
Lucas pfp
Lucas
@lucas79
1. What happened? 1.1. Overview - On August 5th, the global stock market experienced significant declines, leading major share indices to tumble just weeks after reaching record highs: - New York: The S&P 500 finished the trading day down 3%, marking its worst day in nearly two years, closing at 5,186. This extended its decline from its peak to 8.5%. - Tokyo: The Nikkei Index fell by over 12%, the biggest drop since 1987, erasing its gains for the year. - Taiwan: The benchmark index had its worst day ever. - Other Markets: Stock indexes in South Korea, India, Australia, Hong Kong, and Shanghai all recorded their biggest declines in four years.
2 replies
0 recast
0 reaction
Lucas pfp
Lucas
@lucas79
1.2. What Caused the Bloodbath? - Fears of US hard-landing: July’s weak jobs report revealed an unemployment rate increase to 4.3%, a nearly three-year high. This triggered the “Sahm Rule,” which indicates a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate is at least 0.5 percentage points higher than the lowest level in the previous 12 months. The current three-month average is 4.1%, compared to the lowest level of 3.5% in the past year, creating a gap of 0.63%, thus signaling a recession.
6 replies
0 recast
0 reaction
Lucas pfp
Lucas
@lucas79
- Jump Trading’s Influence: One of the largest market makers, Jump Trading, began selling their positions over the past two weeks, particularly during weekends when institutional trading was absent. They offloaded over $400 million in ETH, causing Ethereum to drop to its lowest level since January 2024 ($2,100). Rumors suggest that Jump Trading’s sell-off might indicate their exit from the cryptocurrency market due to a U.S. CFTC investigation. Another theory posits that Jump Trading took advantage of the interest rate differential to borrow cheap Japanese yen and invest in cryptocurrency. The BOJ’s rate hikes compelled them to sell assets into USD, convert to yen, and repay the borrowed money.
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction