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@lex2215
Twitter exploded today. An ex-OpenAI employee from the Superalignment team has published a 165-page document (https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf ) about the future of AI.
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@lex2215
If you are too lazy to read, then you can listen to the 4-hour podcast released today about the same thing: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/leopold-aschenbrenner
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@lex2215
- it's not crazy, and comparable costs and shifts occurred during the Manhattan Project or the Industrial Revolution and the construction of the railway
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@lex2215
- by 2026, the revenue of one of the big tech companies from AI will exceed $100B
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@lex2215
- by 2030, $8T will be invested annually and globally in AI (including chips and computers), as well as more than 100% of the electricity generated in the United States today will be consumed for AI alone
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@lex2215
- NVIDIA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG are already planning a capex of $100B per quarter for AI-only datacenters
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@lex2215
- we will see a single computing cluster worth a trillion dollars within five years. the most rational investment on the part of state actors and big tech is compute, nuclear energy and infrastructure for the first two.
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@lex2215
- today, a large data center is units or tens of megawatts, but with AI, the need will grow by at least 4 orders of magnitude (x 10,000)
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@lex2215
- AGI is the most significant geopolitical resource, much more important than nuclear weapons, and countries will go to great lengths to get it first. The article provides examples of how the Chinese spy on AI companies in the United States.
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@lex2215
- AGI by 2027 is more than likely. - After AGI, the transition to ASI (superintelligence) through self-study will be very fast, almost instantaneous
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