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Mike🎩
@yekim.eth
Good throwback to 2019 when @nick moderated a prediction markets discussion with Augur, Veil and Gnosis Lots of really good discussion around liquidy, AMM vs Orderbook and user generated markets https://x.com/token_summit/status/1129121681958563840?s=46&t=CLGThdwbaweJaMKckbGZIw
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kia
@kia
what do y'all think about current liquidity? in context of past and crypto it's a lot but do you think it's enough liquidity and accessible enough of a market to accurately price such a large event as the elections?
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Mike🎩
@yekim.eth
Personally I think close to or over $1B is plenty. This will be the largest election market ever. Some great research from 2002 about election markets in history that had very high accuracy with less volume. https://www.uvm.edu/~awoolf/classes/fall2004/election/Historical_Presidential_Betting_Markets.pdf
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kia
@kia
ok i gotta look into this. and i have done zero quantitive work on my hypothesis or even looked into who the current market participants are on polymarket. i was telling @dlawant this the other day: I wonder if polymarket to skewed to harris because the best instrument to hedge democratic administration is to bet harris on pm. but there are plenty of ways to bet on the upsides of a republican administration than just betting trump on PM. on the other hand, idk if polymarket is super easy to access for none crypto big money. and crypto big money would be much more in ineed to hedge a democratic admin. (idk with what ease can the average wall street hedge fund access PM. is it like using CME or Binance? if it's like the latter then they're kind of left out right?)
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kia
@kia
again, total hypothesis and i haven't looked into validating any part of it. also i'm an austrian maxi and believe in markets and am not accusing of manipulation here. just wondering if it's a limited participation market and those limited participants have a bias -- not ideological bias but rather in terms of instruments available to them to express their market position. @yekim.eth
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