There's not going to be a civil war; not today and not anytime soon. America is a fluid economic and cultural zone without dividing lines that could organize political violence. If you look at data, the most significant form of polarization politically is based on intimate individualistic factors like gender and age. Most importantly, no country with a high per-capita GDP has ever had a civil war. 

The logic is simple: Even if you're really mad about something in politics, in America you still have the option of watching the football game and going to Cinnabon. The minimal bread of Cinnabon and circus of the NFL is democratically accessible to the masses on a level unlike anything in human history. To the vast majority of people that rationally sounds like a better option than rotting away in prison or giving up ones life or health for some abstract cause.

Rich countries don't have civil wars, they just yell alot. Maybe a civil war could be organized in the metaverse one day so people can blow off steam.

Huxley’s vision was of a populace subdued by its addiction to soma, the pharmacological metaphor for circenses (Roman circus / modern-day entertainment).

Orwell’s vision was of a populace tamed by ubiquitous surveillance (the panopticon) and state violence.

I wonder if the developed world is observing a convergence of both.

Digital technology is, in an ironic etymological twist, providing endless entertainment at our fingertips. Its perverse effects to mental health, especially in future citizens (kids, teenagers), are now well documented.

Separately, Snowden et al. have paid a heavy price to reveal that the panopticon is a reality, and the ratchet effect means there is no going back.

We’re missing the state violence element, but we witness the signs of a violent polarization of the political identities, even if (I agree with @mazmhussain) I don’t expect the type of civil conflict that Twitter pundits seem to fantasize about. And entertainment itself is laced with that same violent substance

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Runs /dropglobalnews

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