An under appreciated reason why 4 year crypto cycles are probably over:

4 year cycles were in large part driven by BTC halvings.  Earlier halvings had a more dramatic change in inflation rate. Now halvings have a much lower effect on inflation. To go from ~25% to ~12% inflation is dramatic. To go from ~1.8% inflation to .9% is far less dramatic. 

Add in that Eth moved to POS and is effectively deflationary, but at a very slow rate since the merge. There just aren’t any big crypto monetary shocks to the system aside from crypto economic development, the broader macro economy, and headline/narrative changes. These won’t follow 4 year cycle patterns.

Punk claimer. Art collector. Stoic.


Wen Moon gallery: 
http://oncyber.io/wenmoon

Portrait Gallery:

http://oncyber.io/kaps1-1


Cross posted from my Twitter. Any ideas what channel this should be posted in?

A crypto less anchored to cycle mentality will be healthier (I hope). Also, dramatic moves will still happen, but the 4 year cycle narrative will die over time. 

[I put the current 4 year timeframe as unlikely to follow any meaningful boom/bust 4 year cycle at 65%] and the following 4 year timeframe as unlikely to follow the boom/bust 4 year cycle at 75%]

Another thought: the end of any meaningful 4 year cycle doesn’t mean we are forever anchored to the macro economic environment.