The expansion of China's digital yuan (e-CNY) pilot threatens Alipay and WeChat Pay, which dominate over 90% of the mobile payment market. The e-CNY offers zero merchant fees, unlike Alipay and WeChat Pay’s 38-60 bps charges, potentially capturing 15% of digital payments by 2025 and 30% by 2030. Its offline payment capabilities and integration into retail scenarios, like Alibaba’s platforms, enhance accessibility. The People’s Bank of China aims to unify QR codes, boosting e-CNY adoption. While Alipay and WeChat Pay’s ecosystems remain robust, regulatory pressure to curb their dominance and consumer concerns over data privacy could shift preferences toward the state-backed e-CNY. However, limited use cases and lack of interest accrual hinder its widespread adoption, suggesting coexistence rather than replacement of these payment giants in the near term.