The more prediction markets are seen as a source of truth for elections the greater the incentive to put campaign spending towards it. 

In a way it’s a pure form of war of attrition.

yes, plus there are all manner of groups, entities and individuals with institutional or personal interests and mandates to spend on influencing political outcomes

"skin in the game" means different things depending on access to capital 

we'll see more of this, and will be fascinating to watch how the markets themselves react to narratives & any evidence it is happening

Something something goodhart’s law something something

Interesting 🤔 but don't you think campaigns overemphasize prediction markets at the expense of grassroots engagement?