I don’t really get this market. Moodeng and michi have equivalent mcaps, one would think that their odds here would reflect that?

imagine the situtation with NVIDIA and the other is Coca Cola and they were the same marketcap.  The relative outlook, composition, trajectory, multiples etc are different, even though the market currently prices them at the same marketcap. Prediction markets would show a different future value.

But why would they be at the same market cap then, isn’t the stock market essentially a prediction market on the future value of the stock?

well they actually were at the same market cap at one point (~2023)

prediction markets are a different instrument that elicit different information to valuing a stock at a given point in time