yr4 asteroid now at 3.1% chance of impact. 

not zero but enough to be interesting. 

if it crosses 10% (doesn’t seem likely) then I’d imagine it becoming a very large thing across the board.

Maybe the threshold is above 50%. But you’d see: 

+ Elon continues to get blessed with incredible storyline 

+ We have a new symbol and cultural character entering the conscious. Something dumb like “Space rock”, “rock” or maybe just “yr4”

+ Continues acceleration on tech + space culture. 

Almost certainly a lot more but that’s first thoughts. 

Also we probably don’t see this and it flattens at current % so it’s all moot anyway.

this is probably a case where memecoins may outperform returns on prediction markets in the success case. 

You get 2.5 to 1 on >5% chance, and no >10% chance market exists yet. 

Compared to a memecoin for it that has much higher upside potential that scales with attention. Tradeoff is uncertainty in which coin/ticker and then trading the attention vs. getting predictable return in a prediction market exists

australians would call it Rocky McRockface