the performance of the S&P 500 in the 3mo before the election has predicted 87% of elections since 1928 and 100% since 1984

when returns were positive, the incumbent party tends to win

If the index suffered losses in the three-month window, the incumbent tends to lose

i solemnly swear that i'm up to no good ·  salvinoarmati.twitter


I figured I’d see you saying something.  

If the clock strikes today, and is only for today, sure.

But do you think this is going to be the prevailing idea for the rest of this period?

It could be.