Economics

The Buffett Indicator (named for Warren Buffett) is calculated as stock market cap / GDP as a ratio in percentage points. This is often used to determine when the stock market's value is over inflated. Here is the Buffett Indicator for the USA at key points over the last 100 years.

Before the 1929 stock market crash that lead into the Great Depression: ~87%

Before the Dot Com Crash in 2000: ~140%

Before the financial crash in 2007/2008: 140%

Now: ~208%

Tech stock evaluations have significantly contributed to the growth of this figure since the turn of the millennium. There hasn't been a proper recession in the USA in over 15 years. If we consider the 2020 flash crash to be a recession then it been just shy of 5 years since there has been a recession. The USA experiences a recession on average every 5.6 years. 

With Trump's aggressive policy changes and the AI boom recently it may be the perfect storm that causes a recession and/stock market crash by the end of 2025....

NFA DYOR