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Kunal Goel
@goel
Over the last three quarters, my Coinbase revenue estimates have handily beaten consensus analyst estimates. I'm about to make it four. 🧵 1/
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Kunal Goel
@goel
I estimate Coinbase will generate a whopping $1.5 billion in net revenue for Q1 2024 growing by 65% for the quarter. My estimate is much higher than consensus estimate of $1.2 billion for gross revenue. 2/
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Kunal Goel
@goel
For this quarter, I analyzed ticker volume data to estimate the retail split of trading volume. This is a key metric because retail pays 50-100x more fee margin than institutional users. I expect retail to contribute 19% volume, slightly less than half of the volume contributed by assets other BTC, ETH, and USDT. 3/
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Kunal Goel
@goel
Base sequencer revenue 5xed compared to last quarter as @farcaster, onchain summer, and EIP-4844 drove greater adoption. However, I expect Coinbase not to internalize this revenue. I expect it may hold this revenue in an onchain entity to be used only to fund future growth on Base. 4/
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