GIGAMΞSH
@gigamesh
Is there anyone bullish on autonomous vehicles who can explain how this is solved? The whole industry seems to be ignoring an essential part of driving is communicating with other humans to navigate coordination problems.
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Commstark 🎩🫂
@commstark
Long term autonomous vehicles will talk to each other so it won’t matter Before this tho, the best use cases for self driving cars aren’t city driving. Their long haul truck and delivery driving. This issue is just a problem that can be solved with time. If you think it could be solved than it will be solved, and much faster than most think
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GIGAMΞSH
@gigamesh
Doesn’t them talking to each other only solve the problem if human drivers are banned?
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Commstark 🎩🫂
@commstark
No. imagine the nice ppl today who would let someone in. It’s say 1/6 of ppl. But it’s enough for the system to work. So you just need enough cars. They also could help each other by slowing down to create space for more than one robot car at a time, or drive the perfect speed in advance to match with a perfect merge when possible or to let one in without stopping traffic behind them ect
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GIGAMΞSH
@gigamesh
Maybe I’m too pessimistic but my assumption is people will become less accommodating as more autonomous vehicles are on the road, which will force regulation that diminishes the autonomy of anyone not getting around via autonomous car.
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Commstark 🎩🫂
@commstark
right but for each new autonomous vehicle the impact of the human diminishes I also assume that adoption won’t happen at the consumer level. It will be at the business level… something like First independent trucking companies, then Independant taxis focusing on long hauls and night/early mornings, then last mile delivery systems, then it rolls up to bigger and bigger companies who adopt for cost savings and this slowly forces out the unions in the bigger shops (who will fight)… at one point human driving will be too expensive to insure and auto cars will be too cheap to ignore Then everyone is in
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GIGAMΞSH
@gigamesh
Makes sense but the rollout of autonomous trucks is going much slower than consumer taxis. See 2024 update at the top of this 2021 article. https://spectrum.ieee.org/this-year-autonomous-trucks-will-take-to-the-road-with-no-one-on-board
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Commstark 🎩🫂
@commstark
slowly then suddenly We’re working on timelines that are short term if you’re under 70 years old Imagine I told you in ten years 10% would be driverless Even if I said 20 years In your lifetime there will be no more drivers and there will be major economic shifts the likes of which we’ve never seen … and perhaps it starts in 5 years
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