From what I can tell, the best all-time ROI on Polymarket is only about 17%*. 

If smart money can get rich in prediction markets, why aren't they? 

*leaderboard ranks by total profit rather than % so its possible non-whales have higher ROI

From what I can tell, the best all-time ROI on Polymarket is only about 17%*. 

If smart money can get rich in prediction markets, why aren't they? 

*leaderboard ranks by total profit rather than % so its possible non-whales have higher ROI

https://polymarket.com/leaderboard

musician & dev gigameshmusic.com github.com/gigamesh

Shouldn’t an accurate prediction market have razor thin margins?

Co-founder, Scout Game.
https://scoutgame.xyz

Not unless there is smart money in the market. Based on the leaderboard, the whales are not the smart money. They're providing most of the liquidity though, which suggests the markets aren't accurate.

There are a lot of them who are betting millions per month but have negative ROI. That doesn't necessarily mean the ones with positive ROI are just getting lucky, but as I understand it the smartest money should be people with rare insider info that is likely only useful in a single market.

Why do you assume they are not smart money? Genuinely curious and interested in prediction markets.

Don’t really care which of the candidates who only differ in optics will win but interested in this new sensemaking capabilities.