i don’t think prediction markets are particularly epistemically sound for predicting the outcomes of elections

it’s hard to reason about political outcomes because your preferences condition your predictions. and the set of people their associated capital who process this differently — i don’t think it’s enough to clear the market

also…you can make money noise trading. your exit is not required to be nov 5th. people talk about poll deviation arbs but…idk my (untested) guess is that prediction makers have momentum independent of polls so…


idk. just color me skeptical about the wisdom of crowds not unconditionally sampled over the distribution political ideologies, placing bets

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yea true. i was def simplifying too much. but even then i think degen noise overwhelms

I don't think the power of prediction markets is necessarily related to the wisdom of the crowd, its more downstream of the incentive for people possessing nonpublic information to reveal it in the market

I think there is a feedback loop there too. The people who thought trump would win see the market confirming their opinion so they double down.