Looking Ahead to 2025 (Thread)

1/ What’s next for crypto exchanges in 2025? A number of indicators point toward a shift that will benefit both CEXs and onchain liquidity protocols. Here’s what to expect.

2/ DEXs continue to grow in both spot and futures trading, now accounting for a meaningful share of the total market.

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3/ Expect further expansion in DEX derivatives, driven by increasing retail interest (possibly but unlikely institutional) , better UX, UI, incentive programs and infrastructure.

4/ With regulatory changes, shifting trader behavior, and exchanges racing to list the newest asset, 2025 could be a significant inflection point in how and where crypto is traded. 

We will likely see more CEXs position themselves as an orderbook aggregator /router in order. This way they can maintain ownership of the customer and defend fat trading fees (much larger % than what the underlying defi protocols are charging)

Using the US exchanges as an example, all but Kraken generate >80% of spot volume from less than 20 markets.

Outsourcing the long tail of market listings to onchain liquidity will reduce challenges related to maintaining sufficient liquidity and absolve orgs from sanctimonious listing processes. 

The listing of new EVM/SVM "tokens" on day 1 will be the new standard. CEXs will need to then differentiate themselves with support for unique L1s, quality of service, trust and real product innovations.