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When will AGI truly become autonomous? I think it hinges on the pace of tech evolution and the nature of the next breakthrough. Current large language models are impressive, but many researchers argue that scaling alone won’t get us to AGI. My guess? Around 2030 could be a tipping point. The next big leap might be a fusion of ‘self-improvement’ and ‘general reasoning’—think an AI that can contextually understand situations like humans and solve novel problems without pre-training. Companies like xAI could speed this up.