According to TheBlock, prior to the upcoming US presidential election on Tuesday, all major forecasting markets continue to predict that former President Trump has a higher chance of winning than Vice President Harris. However, according to data from ElectionBettingOdds.com, over the past week, Trump's average probability of winning in the predicted market has decreased by 3.8%. On Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump's chances of winning have dropped by over 10% from historical highs. As of press time, Trump's chances of winning on Polymarket have dropped from a high of 71.5% on July 16th to 59.1%, while his chances of winning on Kalshi have dropped from a high of 65.2% on October 29th to the current 55% (Kalshi's prediction market went online on October 4th). On Saturday, Trump's chances of winning on Polymarket fell to 57.1% at one point (15 percentage points lower than Harris' 42.8% chance), but then slightly rebounded @fitrahafid 0 reply
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