If prediction markets (Polymarket in the graphic) say something is 25% likely to happen, it really is ~25% likely to happen.

For example, in the chart you'll see events that are expected to happen 22.5% of the time (25% bracket), are predicted to happen 21-22% of the time by Polymarket bettors. Pretty close.

https://dune.com/alexmccullough/how-accurate-is-polymarket

It's easy to look at events after the fact and think they were 100% certainties. e.g. "Trump was certain to win the election". But the markets at the time were saying it was a coinflip ~55%. Hard for many to understand this after the fact. But markets are well calibrated with reality.

Building getinboxzero.com and sharemint.xyz.

I also run a YouTube channel, "Learn from Open Source": youtube.com/elie2222 